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Friday, November 26, 2010

USD Update

Please refer to my last post about USD and our long-term calls.

This post is just a follow up and see how this last call is so far doing. Around two weeks ago I defended the Euro had topped and we were poised for a big move down in Euro (and implicitly a big move up on USD) in the following weeks.

The fact is following that post the USD has risen almost 8% now which in the currency world is a very big move already. EURUSD dropped already almost 1000 pips which is very considerable and if one were to be short that would translate into 10 000 dollars of profits per contract - a very handsome fee indeed.

Here's how the picturee has unfolded since then:

It seems that our call is on the wagon thus far... If indeed my prognostic is right, this leg that has started now should take the USD higher in a very powerful move since we are now crossing into third wave territory.


Disclaimer: The author holds short positions in EURUSD and long positions in USD Index. The author does not take responsibility from the actions taken by others. The opinions listed on this article are of the author only, and shall not be deemed as financial advice, or any other sort of advice. All visitors to the blog should do their own research before making any decisions. This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses any one might sustain from the content provided. Author is not a registered financial advisor. Author does not engage in dispensing financial advice.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

LMP Portfolio

It has been a long time since an update in our portfolio.

We haven't added a single security in the past 6 months and in a way I am happy we didn't since a lot of our shares have gained a lot since then rising more than the index itself.

I'm not happy with one thing though, the fact that we haven't made money for the past 5 months or so due to the fact that we are hedged. I assume the responsibility of that but unfortunately I know how it is watching the markets run up and we are hedged without making any money (or very little) on the upside. Indeed our portfolio filter did have us exiting our shorts around the 1120 area (at a loss) but since I wasn't able to post it here I am counting as if the short is still on.

If we hadn't, we would be up around 75% since inception instead of the current 53'ish %. We still managed to turn out a eek 5% increase in the portfolio but we always want to achieve more here at myBullmarket.

Even with all these intrinsics and episodes around the portfolio we are still beating the S&P for the year by a reasonable margin (although we should've been demolishing it). YTD we are up +13% while S&P is up +8.9% all this by being hedged most of the year and only invested in 75% since we still do have 25% in cash.

Along the way some of our stocks have been through some changes, so if you're following us you probably noticed that DECKERS for example, one of our best performers underwent on a 3:1 stock split and Aeropostale on a 3:2 stock split as well, so all of you have seen your shares increased. That is why in the portfolio table the entry values are now different from our original entries in order to take into account those adjustments from stock splits and also dividends.

So here is how our portfolio is currently invested:

At the end of the year we will indeed need to do some rebalancing, since some of our allocations are now going out of our threshold values.

Stick with us because there is still a lot more to come.

Hapy Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

A recall on our Dollar calls...

I've been wanting to make this post for quite sometime.

A post with our track record on the USD calls and how right we, here at myBullmarket, have been regarding the USD. We have spotted all the big moves and turning points in anticipation, sometimes MONTHS ahead.

I am of course proud of these calls, but one shouldn't take himself too seriously on these occasions. Anyhow here's a graph with our calls for the past 1.5 years:

Luckily we have been right for the most part or at all big turning points. Happily for us of course. Now where to?

Well, as I posted back then my belief was once we reached the 1.40 level we would resume our trend to the downside, so now it's anyone's guess where the Euro will go. My belief again is that ultimately we will breach the 1.20 level once again, but first things first... Before that I think in the short term we will visit the 1.25 level and the EURUSD is currently at the 1.34'ish level.

I will later make a follow-through post on this matter about the USD and also other stuff such as our LMP Portfolio (which has been pretty much flat during the past few months due to our hedged position) and some other topics.

Seat tight and enjoy.

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